The European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop) has updated its Skills Forecast tool, providing projections on employment, skills and labour market developments up to 2035. The data cover the EU-27, as well as Iceland, Norway, the Republic of North Macedonia, Switzerland and Türkiye.
The 2026 edition introduces new analysis of replacement demand – the need to fill vacancies created when workers leave an occupation, mainly due to retirement. Medium-level qualifications are also further disaggregated into vocational and general education pathways, providing a more detailed picture of Europe’s future skills landscape. At the same time, Cedefop’s Labour Skills and Shortage Index (CLSSI) has been updated to provide occupation-level projections of emerging labour shortages.
The projections show that overall employment in the EU-27 is expected to grow by more than 4% between 2023 and 2035. Among the fastest-growing areas are ICT, research and development, computer services, architectural and engineering activities, and electricity generation. In contrast, employment in coal and manufactured fuels is projected to decline significantly.
Demographic change will increasingly shape Europe’s labour market. Employment is expected to grow in human health and related occupations, while the working-age population in the 30–54 age group is projected to decline gradually.
The updated Skills Forecast provides an important evidence base for education and VET planning, skills policy development and the identification of future labour shortages. It supports policymakers, social partners and VET providers in adapting education and training to changing labour market needs and preparing for Europe’s future skills challenges.
The full dataset and interactive tool are available at cedefop.europa.eu/en/tools/skills-forecast.